Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Royals LAA @ KC

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

66-73  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Sep 4 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

70-69  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Fermin None-None 5.06 -- 1.0 2
Lucas Erceg None-None 2.67 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
5.06 ERA Ldr 2.67
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
47%
📊
ROYALS
53%
ANGELS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 68%
Under 0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Los Angeles)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

53.6%

Royals Cover

46.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.0%

LAA By 3-4 runs

14.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

17.8%

KC By 3-4 runs

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.15
LOS ANGELES
3.79
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 KC @ LAA 3 - 0
Aug 15, 2026 KC @ LAA 0 - 1
Aug 14, 2026 KC @ LAA 7 - 6
Apr 26, 2026 LAA @ KC 9 - 11
Apr 25, 2026 LAA @ KC 1 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.679
OPS
▲ .718
154
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +57.9% more
Los Angeles: 1.1 vs Kansas City: 0.5
Errors (L5) +39.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5 vs Kansas City: 0.1
Walks (L5) +23.3% more
Los Angeles: 3.3 vs Kansas City: 2.5
Total Bases (L5) +22.2% more
Los Angeles: 11.2 vs Kansas City: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 4.2 3
KC Score 3.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.4 / 6.4 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.1 4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 7.2 11.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 8.7 / 11.2 17.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.3 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
LAA
KC
LAA
ML
55% 89-72
59% 96-66
56% 90-70
55% 89-73
ATS
57% 91-70
60% 97-65
58% 93-67
51% 82-80
TTL
58% 90-64-7
53% 83-74-5
54% 83-70-7
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 11 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 6 hours, 1 minute ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 8 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 18 hours, 12 minutes ago
Walt Weiss Reveals Why Ronald Acuña Jr. Was DH in Game 3
yahoo 1 day, 17 hours ago