MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
65-74 | Road
5
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
55-83 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
PJ Poulin
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Phillips | None-None | 3.15 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| PJ Poulin | None-None | 1.59 | -- | 1.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.15
ERA
Ldr 1.59
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
57%
NATIONALS
43%
MARLINS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.8%
MIA By 3-4 runs
14.2%
WSH By 1-2 runs
18.1%
WSH By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.2
MIAMI
Washington
3.99
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.727
OPS
▲
.744
168
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+25.6% more
Miami: 1.3
vs
Washington: 0.9
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
Washington: 32.1%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.3%
Miami: 24.9%
vs
Washington: 24.6%
Walks (L5)
+31.1% more
Washington: 3.2
vs
Miami: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.2
5
WSH Score
4.0
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.2 / 6.6
11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.3
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 8.2
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 9.3
22.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.4
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIA
WSH
MIA
ML
57%
92-69
48%
78-84
54%
87-74
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
91-71
57%
91-70
54%
86-74
TTL
50%
77-78-6
56%
88-69-5
42%
65-90-6
53%
82-73-5
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