BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
63-76 | Road
7
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
76-63 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 5.07 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Mason Miller | None-None | 3.22 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.07
ERA
Ldr 3.22
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
41%
PADRES
59%
ORIOLES
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
13.3%
SD By 1-2 runs
18.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.63
BALTIMORE
San Diego
4.72
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 14, 2026
SD @ BAL
5 - 2
Jun 13, 2026
SD @ BAL
9 - 3
Jun 12, 2026
SD @ BAL
3 - 7
Sep 3, 2025
BAL @ SD
7 - 5
Sep 2, 2025
BAL @ SD
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
San Diego
SD
161
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.711
OPS
▲
.925
199
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+38.1% more
San Diego: 10.0
vs
Baltimore: 7.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+34.5% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
OPS (Season)
+21.4%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.7%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Baltimore: 39.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.6
7
SD Score
4.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 10.0
10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.0
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 7.2
12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 15.3
17.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.3
8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
BAL
SD
BAL
ML
51%
85-83
53%
83-73
51%
85-82
57%
90-69
ATS
54%
91-77
61%
95-60-1
55%
92-75
57%
90-68-1
TTL
51%
82-80-6
54%
81-70-5
54%
86-74-6
51%
78-75-6
Contextual Game News
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat