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LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

78-60  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Sep 3 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

62-77  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Justin Wrobleski
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Wrobleski

#70 | Starting Pitcher
@
Braxton Ashcraft
STARTING PITCHER

Braxton Ashcraft

#35 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Justin Wrobleski None-None 4.11 -- 2.0 2
Braxton Ashcraft None-None 2.44 -- 3.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
4.11 ERA Ldr 2.44
-- WHIP --
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
62%
📊
PIRATES
38%
DODGERS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

54.9%

Pirates Cover

45.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.1%

LAD By 3-4 runs

15.0%

PIT By 1-2 runs

17.5%

PIT By 3-4 runs

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.15
LOS ANGELES
4.66
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 PIT @ LAD 0 - 4
Aug 22, 2026 PIT @ LAD 3 - 4
Aug 21, 2026 PIT @ LAD 4 - 5
Jun 11, 2026 LAD @ PIT 8 - 6
Jun 10, 2026 LAD @ PIT 8 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.330
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.762 ▲
OPS
.734
204 ▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +54.5% more
Los Angeles: 1.2 vs Pittsburgh: 0.6
Walks (L5) +41.8% more
Los Angeles: 4.2 vs Pittsburgh: 2.5
Strikeouts (L5) +18.3% more
Los Angeles: 9.7 vs Pittsburgh: 7.9
Total Bases (L5) +15.5% more
Los Angeles: 14.2 vs Pittsburgh: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.2 0
PIT Score 4.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 9.0 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 9.7 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 14.2 14.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.2 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
LAD
PIT
LAD
ML
52% 82-77
56% 92-73
52% 85-78
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 98-67
50% 81-82
43% 72-94
TTL
47% 72-81-6
48% 77-82-6
50% 79-78-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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