Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Red Sox CLE @ BOS

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

68-69  |  Road

8
FINAL
Wed, Sep 3 • 6:45 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

78-62  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Erik Sabrowski
STARTING PITCHER

Erik Sabrowski

#62 | Relief Pitcher
@
Connor Wong
STARTING PITCHER

Connor Wong

#12 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Erik Sabrowski None-None 2.18 -- 1.1 1
Connor Wong None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.18 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
44%
📊
RED SOX
56%
GUARDIANS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 71%
Under 0 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Boston)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

36.6%

Red Sox Cover

63.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

CLE By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

9.6%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.04
CLEVELAND
4.41
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.5
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 CLE @ BOS 1 - 0
Sep 23, 2026 CLE @ BOS 0 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 CLE @ BOS 3 - 2
May 31, 2026 BOS @ CLE 9 - 4
May 30, 2026 BOS @ CLE 9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.19 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.380 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.696 ▲
OPS
.409
162 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +69.5% more
Boston: 12.7 vs Cleveland: 7.5
Total Bases (L5) +40.8% more
Boston: 20.1 vs Cleveland: 14.2
Errors (L5) +21.0% more
Boston: 0.3 vs Cleveland: 0.0
Walks (L5) +19.4% more
Boston: 2.8 vs Cleveland: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 3.0 8
BOS Score 4.4 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 12.7 / 7.5 7.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 2.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.4 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 20.1 / 14.2 8.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.3 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
87-79-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9% Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CLE
BOS
CLE
ML
50% 80-80
54% 87-75
47% 76-87
49% 80-83
ATS
58% 93-67
57% 93-69
48% 79-84
58% 95-68
TTL
46% 72-83-5
56% 89-71-2
47% 74-83-6
44% 70-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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