PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
80-58 | Road
3
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
85-54 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orion Kerkering
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Abner Uribe
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orion Kerkering | None-None | 3.10 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Abner Uribe | None-None | 1.87 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.10
ERA
Ldr 1.87
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
47%
BREWERS
53%
PHILLIES
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
PHI By 1-2 runs
13.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
7.9%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.27
PHILADELPHIA
Milwaukee
6.24
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Brewers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Brewers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
MIL @ PHI
5 - 1
Sep 23, 2026
MIL @ PHI
4 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
MIL @ PHI
4 - 6
Jun 14, 2026
PHI @ MIL
0 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
PHI @ MIL
9 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.724
OPS
▲
.743
3
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5033.3% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+46.9% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Home Runs (L5)
+39.2% more
Milwaukee: 1.7
vs
Philadelphia: 1.3
Total Bases (L5)
+10.6% more
Milwaukee: 18.0
vs
Philadelphia: 16.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.3
3
MIL Score
6.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.6 / 9.6
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 8.3
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
18.0 / 16.3
12.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.9 / 4.0
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PHI
MIL
PHI
ML
62%
101-61
59%
97-67
52%
84-78
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
94-68
65%
107-57
48%
78-84
51%
83-81
TTL
40%
62-92-8
57%
88-67-9
50%
77-77-8
51%
78-76-9
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