Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / San José St @ Texas SJSU @ TEX

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

0-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 12:00 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

0-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
@
Ryan Niblett
KEY GAME

Ryan Niblett

#21 | Running Back
Player
Trent Carrizosa None-None
Ryan Niblett None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN JOSÉ ST
0%
📊
TEXAS
100%
SAN JOSÉ ST --
TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.4
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.4 points (San José State)
San José StSJSU (-3.5) 0 TexasTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San José St Cover

65.0%

Texas Cover

35.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SJSU -5.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

SJSU By 1-6 points

16.8%

SJSU By 7-13 points

18.7%

TEX By 1-6 points

13.9%

TEX By 7-13 points

10.9%

AI Model Projected Score
31.26
SAN JOSÉ STATE
25.88
TEXAS
Simulated Score
13
SAN JOSÉ STATE
48
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI San José St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI San José St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.4
C
Sim Texas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 SJSU @ TEX 7 - 38
Sep 9, 2017 SJSU @ TEX 0 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +39.7% more
San José State: 2.4 vs Texas: 1.4
First Downs (L5) +13.6% more
San José State: 22.5 vs Texas: 19.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.3% more
Texas: 133.7 vs San José State: 88.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 31.3 7
TEX Score 25.9 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 22.5 18.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 133.7 / 88.4 155.0 / 89.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.17 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 374.8 / 392.5 472.0 / 273.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 2.4 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
TEX Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
TEX
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.1
TEX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
SJSU
TEX
SJSU
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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