Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Virginia @ NC State UVA @ NCSU

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

1-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 12:00 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

1-0  |  Home

35
Key Game
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
@
Isaiah Shirley
KEY GAME

Isaiah Shirley

#88 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Will Bettridge None-None
Isaiah Shirley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA
100%
📊
NC STATE
0%
VIRGINIA --
NC STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.7
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.7 points (NC State)
VirginiaUVA (-3.5) 0 NC StateNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Cover

29.1%

NC State Cover

70.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NCSU -7.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

UVA By 1-6 points

12.4%

UVA By 7-13 points

9.0%

NCSU By 1-6 points

16.2%

NCSU By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
18.59
VIRGINIA
26.28
NC STATE
Simulated Score
17
VIRGINIA
28
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI NC State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim NC State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI NC State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.7
C
Sim NC State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.9
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 NCSU @ UVA 8 - 34
Sep 6, 2025 UVA @ NCSU 31 - 35
Sep 22, 2023 NCSU @ UVA 24 - 21
Oct 10, 2020 NCSU @ UVA 38 - 21
Sep 29, 2018 UVA @ NCSU 21 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.8% more
NC State: 161.5 vs Virginia: 121.6
Total Yards (L5) +23.6% more
NC State: 416.9 vs Virginia: 337.3
First Downs (L5) +9.9% more
NC State: 21.2 vs Virginia: 19.3
Turnovers (L5) +9.8% more
NC State: 1.4 vs Virginia: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVA Score 18.6 31
NCSU Score 26.3 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 19.3 22.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 161.5 / 121.6 216.0 / 257.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.14 / 0.68
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 416.9 / 337.3 416.0 / 514.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
NCSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
NCSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
NCSU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
UVA
NCSU
UVA
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rodriguez: Roster Turnover Slowing WVU's Progress
theintermountain 18 hours, 9 minutes ago
Mountaineers' Defensive Coordinator Zac Alley Loses Sleep Over S…
observer_reporter 1 day, 23 hours ago
Ashton Daniels Breaks FSU Single-Game Rushing Touchdown Record i…
tallahassee 4 days, 12 hours ago
Louisville Visits NC State for First True Road Test of 2026
si 5 days, 5 hours ago
Pat Narduzzi Tells AP Voters to 'Wake Their A** Up' After Pitt's…
awfulannouncing 5 days, 18 hours ago