Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Baylor @ SMU BAY @ SMU

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

0-1  |  Road

48
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 12:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
View Odds Details →

SMU

SMUSMU

1-0  |  Home

45
Key Game
Rhett Armstrong
KEY GAME

Rhett Armstrong

#98 | Place kicker
@
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
Player
Rhett Armstrong None-None
Wade McSparron None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BAYLOR
100%
📊
SMU
0%
BAYLOR --
SMU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
75.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.3
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.3 points (SMU)
BaylorBAY (-3.5) 0 SMUSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Baylor Cover

18.9%

SMU Cover

81.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SMU -12.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

BAY By 1-6 points

9.0%

BAY By 7-13 points

5.7%

SMU By 1-6 points

13.9%

SMU By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
31.38
BAYLOR
43.72
SMU
Simulated Score
27
BAYLOR
31
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI SMU Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim SMU Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI SMU (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.3
C
Sim SMU (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 75.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 BAY @ SMU 48 - 45
Sep 10, 2016 SMU @ BAY 13 - 40
Sep 4, 2015 BAY @ SMU 56 - 21
Aug 31, 2014 SMU @ BAY 0 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +172.0% more
SMU: 2.3 vs Baylor: 0.6
Total Yards (L5) +21.3% more
Baylor: 491.5 vs SMU: 386.9
First Downs (L5) +10.6% more
Baylor: 26.2 vs SMU: 23.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAY Score 31.4 48
SMU Score 43.7 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 26.2 23.0 / 32.0
Rushing Yards 123.5 / 133.2 163.0 / 161.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 386.9 / 491.5 458.0 / 601.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 0.6 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
SMU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
SMU
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
BAY
SMU
BAY
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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