Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / East Texas A&M @ Florida St ETAM @ FSU

EAST TEXAS A&M

EAST TEXAS A&METAM

0-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 12:00 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

1-0  |  Home

77
Key Game
Ben Mehan
KEY GAME

Ben Mehan

#39 | Punter
@
André Otto
KEY GAME

André Otto

#65 | Offensive Lineman
Player
Ben Mehan None-None
André Otto None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAST TEXAS A&M
100%
📊
FLORIDA ST
0%
EAST TEXAS A&M --
FLORIDA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
23.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.6
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.6 points (Florida State)
East Texas A&METAM (-3.5) 0 Florida StFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

East Texas A&M Cover

26.9%

Florida St Cover

73.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FSU -8.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

ETAM By 1-6 points

11.7%

ETAM By 7-13 points

8.3%

FSU By 1-6 points

15.9%

FSU By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7.42
EAST TEXAS A&M
16.04
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
10
EAST TEXAS A&M
52
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Florida St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Florida St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Florida St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.6
C
Sim Florida St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 23.5
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 ETAM @ FSU 3 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.9% more
Florida State: 153.1 vs East Texas A&M: 105.7
Total Yards (L5) +16.0% more
Florida State: 310.9 vs East Texas A&M: 268.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Florida State: 0.4 vs East Texas A&M: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +10.4% more
Florida State: 18.0 vs East Texas A&M: 16.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ETAM Score 7.4 3
FSU Score 16.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 16.3 29.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 153.1 / 105.7 361.0 / 105.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.71 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 310.9 / 268.1 729.0 / 197.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 2.1 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETAM
--
FSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETAM
--
FSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ETAM
--
FSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
ETAM
FSU
ETAM
ML
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
TTL
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC Football Cranks Up Volume to Simulate Penn State's White Out
headtopics 1 day, 18 hours ago
College Football Week 5 Overreactions: Missouri's Rise, Norvell'…
yahoo 3 days, 5 hours ago
Penn State's Season in Turmoil After Consecutive Losses
yahoo 3 days, 12 hours ago
Ashton Daniels Breaks FSU Single-Game Rushing Touchdown Record i…
tallahassee 4 days, 12 hours ago
Penn State's Second Straight Loss Exposes Alarming Statistical T…
yahoo 5 days, 12 hours ago