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UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

1-0  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 12:45 PM ET
Kyle Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

1-0  |  Home

44
Key Game
Gabriel Iniguez Jr.
KEY GAME

Gabriel Iniguez Jr.

#10 | Defensive Tackle
@
DJ Hicks
KEY GAME

DJ Hicks

#5 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Gabriel Iniguez Jr. None-None
DJ Hicks None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH STATE
100%
📊
TEXAS A&M
0%
UTAH STATE --
TEXAS A&M --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
74.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.1
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.1 points (Texas A&M)
Utah StateUSU (-3.5) 0 Texas A&MTA&M (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utah State Cover

25.8%

Texas A&M Cover

74.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TA&M -9.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)

USU By 1-6 points

11.4%

USU By 7-13 points

7.9%

TA&M By 1-6 points

15.7%

TA&M By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
32.6
UTAH STATE
41.69
TEXAS A&M
Simulated Score
17
UTAH STATE
38
TEXAS A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas A&M Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.1
C
Sim Texas A&M (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 74.3
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 USU @ TA&M 22 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.5% more
Utah State: 219.3 vs Texas A&M: 139.3
Turnovers (L5) +14.3% more
Utah State: 1.3 vs Texas A&M: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +9.6% more
Utah State: 443.6 vs Texas A&M: 401.2
First Downs (L5) +8.6% more
Utah State: 22.2 vs Texas A&M: 20.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 32.6 22
TA&M Score 41.7 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 22.2 30.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 139.3 / 219.3 235.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 401.2 / 443.6 554.0 / 250.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
TA&M Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
TA&M
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
TA&M
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TA&M
USU
TA&M
USU
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
TTL
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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