Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas St @ UTSA TXST @ UTSA

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

1-0  |  Road

43
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 3:30 PM ET
Alamodome
View Odds Details →

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

0-1  |  Home

36
Key Game
J.P. Deeter
KEY GAME

J.P. Deeter

#91 | Defensive Lineman
@
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
Player
J.P. Deeter None-None
Caile Hogan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS ST
0%
📊
UTSA
100%
TEXAS ST --
UTSA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
91.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Texas State)
Texas StTXST (-3.5) 0 UTSAUTSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas St Cover

62.4%

UTSA Cover

37.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TXST -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

TXST By 1-6 points

16.9%

TXST By 7-13 points

18.3%

UTSA By 1-6 points

14.5%

UTSA By 7-13 points

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
47.76
TEXAS STATE
43.32
UTSA
Simulated Score
20
TEXAS STATE
34
UTSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texas St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UTSA Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas St (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.4
C
Sim UTSA (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 91.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 UTSA @ TXST 31 - 26
Sep 6, 2025 TXST @ UTSA 43 - 36
Sep 7, 2024 UTSA @ TXST 10 - 49
Sep 9, 2023 TXST @ UTSA 13 - 20
Sep 12, 2020 UTSA @ TXST 51 - 48
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +28.3% more
Texas State: 27.8 vs UTSA: 19.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.6% more
Texas State: 281.0 vs UTSA: 209.1
Total Yards (L5) +17.9% more
Texas State: 539.8 vs UTSA: 443.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Texas State: 0.5 vs UTSA: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXST Score 47.8 43
UTSA Score 43.3 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 27.8 25.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 209.1 / 281.0 245.0 / 168.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 443.0 / 539.8 464.0 / 454.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
UTSA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
UTSA Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTSA
TXST
UTSA
TXST
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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