Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Bowling Green @ Cincinnati BGSU @ CIN

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

1-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 3:30 PM ET
Nippert Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

0-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Brennan Ridley
KEY GAME

Brennan Ridley

#5 | Wide Receiver
@
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
Player
Brennan Ridley None-None
Max Fletcher None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOWLING GREEN
0%
📊
CINCINNATI
100%
BOWLING GREEN --
CINCINNATI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.1
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.1 points (Bowling Green)
Bowling GreenBGSU (-3.5) 0 CincinnatiCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bowling Green Cover

80.5%

Cincinnati Cover

19.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BGSU -12.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

BGSU By 1-6 points

14.1%

BGSU By 7-13 points

19.5%

CIN By 1-6 points

9.2%

CIN By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
31.41
BOWLING GREEN
19.35
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
13
BOWLING GREEN
35
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bowling Green Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Cincinnati Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bowling Green (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.1
C
Sim Cincinnati (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.8
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 BGSU @ CIN 20 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +130.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.9 vs Bowling Green: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +72.5% more
Cincinnati: 200.7 vs Bowling Green: 116.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score 31.4 20
CIN Score 19.4 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 18.6 18.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 200.7 / 116.3 106.0 / 98.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.29 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 343.8 / 345.8 439.0 / 372.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
CIN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
CIN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
CIN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
BGSU
CIN
BGSU
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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