Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Troy @ Clemson TROY @ CLEM

TROY

TROYTROY

1-0  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 3:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
View Odds Details →

CLEMSON

CLEMSONCLEM

0-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
TJ Thompson
KEY GAME

TJ Thompson

#4 | Linebacker
@
Nolan Hauser
KEY GAME

Nolan Hauser

#81 | Place kicker
Player
TJ Thompson None-None
Nolan Hauser None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TROY
100%
📊
CLEMSON
0%
TROY --
CLEMSON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
67.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.2
CLEMSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.2 points (Clemson)
TroyTROY (-3.5) 0 ClemsonCLEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Troy Cover

23.3%

Clemson Cover

76.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CLEM -10.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLEM)

TROY By 1-6 points

10.6%

TROY By 7-13 points

7.1%

CLEM By 1-6 points

15.2%

CLEM By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
28.69
TROY
38.9
CLEMSON
Simulated Score
17
TROY
42
CLEMSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Clemson Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Clemson Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Clemson (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.2
C
Sim Clemson (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 67.6
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 TROY @ CLEM 16 - 27
Sep 10, 2016 TROY @ CLEM 24 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +59.5% more
Troy: 222.7 vs Clemson: 90.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Troy: 0.6 vs Clemson: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +18.2% more
Troy: 23.1 vs Clemson: 18.9
Total Yards (L5) +14.2% more
Troy: 419.9 vs Clemson: 360.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 28.7 16
CLEM Score 38.9 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 23.1 17.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 90.2 / 222.7 120.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.6 0.42 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 360.3 / 419.9 316.0 / 301.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.1 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
CLEM
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
CLEM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
CLEM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLEM
TROY
CLEM
TROY
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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