Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oklahoma St @ Oregon OKST @ ORE

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

1-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 3:30 PM ET
Autzen Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON

OREGONORE

1-0  |  Home

69
Key Game
Kobi Foreman
KEY GAME

Kobi Foreman

#14 | Cornerback
@
Jerry Mixon
KEY GAME

Jerry Mixon

#6 | Linebacker
Player
Kobi Foreman None-None
Jerry Mixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OKLAHOMA ST
100%
📊
OREGON
0%
OKLAHOMA ST --
OREGON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.4
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.4 points (Oregon)
Oklahoma StOKST (-3.5) 0 OregonORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oklahoma St Cover

0.5%

Oregon Cover

99.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORE -36.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

OKST By 1-6 points

0.3%

OKST By 7-13 points

0.1%

ORE By 1-6 points

1.1%

ORE By 7-13 points

3.5%

AI Model Projected Score
0
OKLAHOMA STATE
36.38
OREGON
Simulated Score
24
OKLAHOMA STATE
38
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oregon Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oregon Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oregon (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -36.4
C
Sim Oregon (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.4
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 ORE @ OKST 31 - 39
Sep 6, 2025 OKST @ ORE 3 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.1% more
Oregon: 161.3 vs Oklahoma State: 116.8
Total Yards (L5) +27.3% more
Oregon: 425.9 vs Oklahoma State: 334.6
First Downs (L5) +18.0% more
Oregon: 23.5 vs Oklahoma State: 19.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Oregon: 0.6 vs Oklahoma State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKST Score 0.0 3
ORE Score 36.4 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 19.9 24.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 161.3 / 116.8 312.0 / 144.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.58 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 425.9 / 334.6 631.0 / 211.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.8 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKST
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
ORE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKST Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 17.5 ATS +/-: +6.9
ORE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OKST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
OKST
ORE
OKST
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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