Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / ETSU @ Tennessee ETSU @ TENN

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

ETSUETSU

1-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 3:30 PM ET
Neyland Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TENNESSEETENN

1-0  |  Home

72
Key Game
Ewan Johnson
KEY GAME

Ewan Johnson

#15 | Place kicker
@
Jackson Ross
KEY GAME

Jackson Ross

#98 | Punter
Player
Ewan Johnson None-None
Jackson Ross None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ETSU
100%
📊
TENNESSEE
0%
ETSU --
TENNESSEE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.2
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.2 points (Tennessee)
ETSUETSU (-3.5) 0 TennesseeTENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

ETSU Cover

9.7%

Tennessee Cover

90.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TENN -18.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)

ETSU By 1-6 points

5.2%

ETSU By 7-13 points

2.7%

TENN By 1-6 points

9.9%

TENN By 7-13 points

16.7%

AI Model Projected Score
12.3
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
30.5
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
7
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
52
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tennessee Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Tennessee Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tennessee (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.2
C
Sim Tennessee (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.8
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 ETSU @ TENN 17 - 72
Sep 8, 2018 ETSU @ TENN 3 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +78.6% more
Tennessee: 424.4 vs East Tennessee State: 237.6
First Downs (L5) +77.4% more
Tennessee: 22.4 vs East Tennessee State: 12.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +63.7% more
Tennessee: 218.8 vs East Tennessee State: 133.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +32.0% more
Tennessee: 0.5 vs East Tennessee State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ETSU Score 12.3 17
TENN Score 30.5 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 12.6 41.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 218.8 / 133.6 259.0 / 49.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.2 0.71 / 0.13
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 424.4 / 237.6 717.0 / 216.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETSU
--
TENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETSU
--
TENN Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.6 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ETSU
--
TENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
ETSU
TENN
ETSU
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
ATS
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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