UAB
UABUAB
1-0 | Road
24
NAVY
NAVYNAVY
1-0 | Home
38
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jonah Delange
#39 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Jacob Carlson
#11 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jonah Delange | None-None |
| Jacob Carlson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UAB
100%
NAVY
0%
UAB
--
NAVY
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.6
NAVY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.6 points (Navy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NAVY -22.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)
UAB By 1-6 points
3.1%
UAB By 7-13 points
1.4%
NAVY By 1-6 points
6.8%
NAVY By 7-13 points
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UAB
16.92
UAB
Navy
39.48
NAVY
Simulated Score
UAB
24
UAB
Navy
27
NAVY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Navy
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Navy
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Navy (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -22.6
C
Sim
Navy (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 56.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 25, 2026
NAVY @ UAB
20 - 24
Sep 6, 2025
UAB @ NAVY
24 - 38
Sep 28, 2024
NAVY @ UAB
41 - 18
Nov 11, 2023
UAB @ NAVY
6 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+77.8% more
Navy: 313.1
vs
UAB: 176.1
Turnovers (L5)
+62.0% more
UAB: 1.2
vs
Navy: 0.5
First Downs (L5)
+21.3% more
UAB: 23.1
vs
Navy: 18.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UAB Score
16.9
24
NAVY Score
39.5
38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
18.2 / 23.1
20.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards
313.1 / 176.1
295.0 / 92.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.5
0.44 / 0.46
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards
410.8 / 443.5
463.0 / 413.0
Turnovers
0.5 / 1.2
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAB
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: +0.4
NAVY
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAB
Advantage
2-2-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-: +0.4
NAVY
0-4-0
(0.0%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UAB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -6.3
NAVY
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
UAB
NAVY
UAB
ML
25%
1-3
80%
4-1
100%
4-0
100%
5-0
ATS
50%
2-2
50%
2-2-1
100%
4-0
75%
3-1-1
TTL
0%
0-4
40%
2-3
25%
1-3
60%
3-2
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