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ST FRANCIS PA

RED FLASHSFPA

0-1  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 3:30 PM ET
UB Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

0-1  |  Home

45
Key Game
Mac Plummer
KEY GAME

Mac Plummer

#18 | Place kicker
@
Xavier Leonard
KEY GAME

Xavier Leonard

#23 | Safety
Player
Mac Plummer None-None
Xavier Leonard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RED FLASH
100%
📊
BUFFALO
0%
RED FLASH --
BUFFALO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
26.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.8
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.8 points (Buffalo)
Red FlashSFPA (-3.5) 0 BuffaloBUFF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Flash Cover

2.8%

Buffalo Cover

97.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUFF -26.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUFF)

SFPA By 1-6 points

1.7%

SFPA By 7-13 points

0.7%

BUFF By 1-6 points

4.3%

BUFF By 7-13 points

9.7%

AI Model Projected Score
0
ST FRANCIS PA
26.82
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
10
ST FRANCIS PA
41
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buffalo Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Buffalo Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buffalo (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.8
C
Sim Buffalo (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 26.8
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 SFPA @ BUFF 6 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +52.8% more
Buffalo: 150.5 vs St Francis PA: 98.5
First Downs (L5) +42.0% more
Buffalo: 16.7 vs St Francis PA: 11.8
Total Yards (L5) +35.4% more
Buffalo: 316.1 vs St Francis PA: 233.5
Turnovers (L5) +36.5% more
St Francis PA: 1.5 vs Buffalo: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFPA Score 0.0 6
BUFF Score 26.8 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.7 / 11.8 32.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 150.5 / 98.5 370.0 / 4.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.65 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 316.1 / 233.5 503.0 / 119.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFPA
--
BUFF Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFPA
--
BUFF Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SFPA
--
BUFF
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUFF
SFPA
BUFF
SFPA
ML
100% 5-0
-- 0-0
100% 5-0
-- 0-0
ATS
20% 1-4
-- 0-0
80% 4-1
-- 0-0
TTL
60% 3-2
-- 0-0
80% 4-1
-- 0-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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