Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Florida @ Florida USF @ FLA

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

1-0  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 4:15 PM ET
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

1-0  |  Home

16
Key Game
Grayson Howard
KEY GAME

Grayson Howard

#0 | Linebacker
@
Kamran James
KEY GAME

Kamran James

#24 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Grayson Howard None-None
Kamran James None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH FLORIDA
100%
📊
FLORIDA
0%
SOUTH FLORIDA --
FLORIDA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
86.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Florida)
South FloridaUSF (-3.5) 0 FloridaFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Florida Cover

11.2%

Florida Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FLA -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

USF By 1-6 points

5.9%

USF By 7-13 points

3.2%

FLA By 1-6 points

10.7%

FLA By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
34.79
SOUTH FLORIDA
51.8
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
17
SOUTH FLORIDA
38
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Florida Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Florida Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Florida (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim Florida (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 86.6
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 USF @ FLA 18 - 16
Sep 17, 2022 USF @ FLA 28 - 31
Sep 11, 2021 FLA @ USF 42 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.4% more
Florida: 196.4 vs South Florida: 145.1
First Downs (L5) +25.4% more
Florida: 22.9 vs South Florida: 18.3
Time of Possession (L5) +13.0% more
Florida: 0.5 vs South Florida: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 34.8 18
FLA Score 51.8 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 18.3 19.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 196.4 / 145.1 133.0 / 128.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 424.4 / 409.1 355.0 / 391.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
FLA
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
FLA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
FLA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
USF
FLA
USF
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
American Conference Week 6: A 100-Pound Rib Trophy, a Walk-On's …
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Hurricane Isaias Puts Bengals-Dolphins Clash on Weather Watch
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Thursday Night College Football: UTSA vs. South Florida Headline…
usatoday 12 hours, 2 minutes ago
Pete Golding Emphasizes Execution Over Scheme Change as Ole Miss…
si 1 day ago
Florida's Jon Sumrall Eyes Five-Star Flip as Gators Host Easton …
newsweek 1 day, 5 hours ago