Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Jackson St @ Southern Miss JKST @ USM

JACKSON STATE

JACKSON STJKST

1-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 5:00 PM ET
M. M. Roberts Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

0-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Kye Collins
KEY GAME

Kye Collins

#39 | Punter
@
Reed Harradine
KEY GAME

Reed Harradine

#96 | Place kicker
Player
Kye Collins None-None
Reed Harradine None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JACKSON ST
0%
📊
SOUTHERN MISS
100%
JACKSON ST --
SOUTHERN MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
28.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.3
JACKSON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.3 points (Jackson State)
Jackson StJKST (-3.5) 0 Southern MissUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jackson St Cover

79.1%

Southern Miss Cover

20.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JKST -11.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JKST)

JKST By 1-6 points

14.5%

JKST By 7-13 points

19.7%

USM By 1-6 points

9.8%

USM By 7-13 points

6.3%

AI Model Projected Score
19.99
JACKSON STATE
8.66
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
17
JACKSON STATE
38
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jackson St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Southern Miss Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jackson St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.3
C
Sim Southern Miss (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 28.7
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 JKST @ USM 20 - 38
Sep 1, 2018 JKST @ USM 7 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.8% more
Jackson State: 1.9 vs Southern Miss: 1.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.4% more
Southern Miss: 104.0 vs Jackson State: 79.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JKST Score 20.0 20
USM Score 8.7 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 16.9 25.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 104.0 / 79.1 139.0 / 191.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 283.5 / 295.2 363.0 / 322.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.9 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
10%MONEY90%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JKST
--
USM Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JKST
--
USM Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
JKST
--
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
JKST
USM
JKST
ML
80% 4-1
-- 0-0
40% 2-3
-- 0-0
ATS
40% 2-3
-- 0-0
40% 2-3
-- 0-0
TTL
60% 3-2
-- 0-0
20% 1-4
-- 0-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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