Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Cal Poly @ Utah CP @ UTAH

CAL POLY

CAL POLYCP

1-0  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 6:00 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH

UTAHUTAH

1-0  |  Home

63
Key Game
Manaalii Danielson
KEY GAME

Manaalii Danielson

#9 | Defensive Lineman
@
Orion Phillips
KEY GAME

Orion Phillips

#92 | Punter
Player
Manaalii Danielson None-None
Orion Phillips None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CAL POLY
100%
📊
UTAH
0%
CAL POLY --
UTAH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
20.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Utah)
Cal PolyCP (-3.5) 0 UtahUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cal Poly Cover

23.8%

Utah Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTAH -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

CP By 1-6 points

10.8%

CP By 7-13 points

7.3%

UTAH By 1-6 points

15.3%

UTAH By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
5.19
CAL POLY
15.16
UTAH
Simulated Score
3
CAL POLY
48
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Utah Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Utah Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Utah (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Utah (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 20.4
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 CP @ UTAH 9 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +60.7% more
Utah: 156.3 vs Cal Poly: 97.2
First Downs (L5) +31.2% more
Utah: 18.3 vs Cal Poly: 14.0
Total Yards (L5) +29.9% more
Utah: 327.7 vs Cal Poly: 252.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +25.0% more
Utah: 0.5 vs Cal Poly: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CP Score 5.2 9
UTAH Score 15.2 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 14.0 24.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 156.3 / 97.2 273.0 / 65.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.69 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 327.7 / 252.2 518.0 / 223.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
--
UTAH Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
--
UTAH Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
--
UTAH
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
CP
UTAH
CP
ML
100% 4-0
100% 2-0
100% 4-0
100% 2-0
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 1-1
25% 1-3
100% 2-0
TTL
75% 3-1
0% 0-2
25% 1-3
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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