Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N Colorado @ Colorado St UNCO @ CSU

NORTHERN COLORADO

N COLORADOUNCO

1-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Canvas Stadium
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

0-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Alfred Smith
KEY GAME

Alfred Smith

#29 | Safety
@
Keegan Shank
KEY GAME

Keegan Shank

#90 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Alfred Smith None-None
Keegan Shank None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N COLORADO
100%
📊
COLORADO ST
0%
N COLORADO --
COLORADO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.3
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.3 points (Colorado State)
N ColoradoUNCO (-3.5) 0 Colorado StCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Colorado Cover

21.0%

Colorado St Cover

79.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CSU -11.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

UNCO By 1-6 points

9.8%

UNCO By 7-13 points

6.4%

CSU By 1-6 points

14.6%

CSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
12.24
NORTHERN COLORADO
23.52
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
13
NORTHERN COLORADO
41
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Colorado St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Colorado St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colorado St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.3
C
Sim Colorado St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.8
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 UNCO @ CSU 17 - 21
Sep 7, 2024 UNCO @ CSU 17 - 38
Sep 17, 2016 UNCO @ CSU 21 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +57.7% more
Colorado State: 1.6 vs Northern Colorado: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +28.2% more
Colorado State: 375.3 vs Northern Colorado: 292.8
First Downs (L5) +25.9% more
Colorado State: 18.6 vs Northern Colorado: 14.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.4% more
Colorado State: 121.1 vs Northern Colorado: 101.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCO Score 12.2 17
CSU Score 23.5 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 14.7 27.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 121.1 / 101.4 230.0 / 63.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 375.3 / 292.8 371.0 / 223.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.0 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCO
--
CSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCO
--
CSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCO
--
CSU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +20.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
UNCO
CSU
UNCO
ML
100% 4-0
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
75% 3-1
0% 0-2
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
TTL
0% 0-4
0% 0-2
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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