Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Long Island @ E Michigan LIU @ EMU

LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY

LONG ISLANDLIU

0-1  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Rynearson Stadium
View Odds Details →

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

0-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Lance Maiberg
KEY GAME

Lance Maiberg

#46 | Place kicker
@
Rudy Kessinger
KEY GAME

Rudy Kessinger

#46 | Place kicker
Player
Lance Maiberg None-None
Rudy Kessinger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LONG ISLAND
100%
📊
E MICHIGAN
0%
LONG ISLAND --
E MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.9
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.9 points (Eastern Michigan)
Long IslandLIU (-3.5) 0 E MichiganEMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Long Island Cover

21.8%

E Michigan Cover

78.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around EMU -10.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EMU)

LIU By 1-6 points

10.1%

LIU By 7-13 points

6.6%

EMU By 1-6 points

14.8%

EMU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
0
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
10.92
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
10
LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
41
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI E Michigan Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim E Michigan Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI E Michigan (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.9
C
Sim E Michigan (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.9
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 LIU @ EMU 28 - 23
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +153.1% more
Eastern Michigan: 20.1 vs Long Island University: 7.9
Total Yards (L5) +149.5% more
Eastern Michigan: 371.7 vs Long Island University: 149.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +122.2% more
Eastern Michigan: 144.0 vs Long Island University: 64.8
Turnovers (L5) +33.1% more
Eastern Michigan: 1.7 vs Long Island University: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIU Score 0.0 28
EMU Score 10.9 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 7.9 17.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 144.0 / 64.8 122.0 / 231.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.2 0.42 / 0.65
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 371.7 / 149.0 311.0 / 479.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIU
--
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIU
--
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LIU
--
EMU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EMU
LIU
EMU
LIU
ML
67% 4-2
100% 3-0
50% 3-3
100% 3-0
ATS
50% 3-3
33% 1-2
33% 2-4
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 4-2
100% 3-0
50% 3-3
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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