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NORTH CAROLINA A&T

NC A&TNCAT

0-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:00 PM ET
FBC Mortgage Stadium
View Odds Details →

UCF

UCFUCF

1-0  |  Home

68
Key Game
DJ Page
KEY GAME

DJ Page

#46 | Place kicker
@
Noah McGough
KEY GAME

Noah McGough

#31 | Place kicker
Player
DJ Page None-None
Noah McGough None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NC A&T
100%
📊
UCF
0%
NC A&T --
UCF --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (UCF)
NC A&TNCAT (-3.5) 0 UCFUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

NC A&T Cover

40.8%

UCF Cover

59.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UCF -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

NCAT By 1-6 points

15.1%

NCAT By 7-13 points

12.7%

UCF By 1-6 points

17.0%

UCF By 7-13 points

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
19.17
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
22.43
UCF
Simulated Score
7
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
52
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UCF Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UCF Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UCF (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.3
C
Sim UCF (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.6
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 NCAT @ UCF 7 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +86.0% more
UCF: 1.5 vs North Carolina A&T: 0.6
Total Yards (L5) +42.6% more
UCF: 409.4 vs North Carolina A&T: 287.1
First Downs (L5) +30.6% more
UCF: 22.9 vs North Carolina A&T: 17.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCAT Score 19.2 7
UCF Score 22.4 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.9 / 17.5 20.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 168.8 / 173.1 356.0 / 160.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 409.4 / 287.1 560.0 / 200.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCAT
--
UCF Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCAT
--
UCF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NCAT
--
UCF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
NCAT
UCF
NCAT
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
ATS
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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