HOUSTON
HOUSTONHOU
1-0 | Road
35
RICE
RICERICE
1-0 | Home
9
Key Game
KEY GAME
Liam Dougherty
#91 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Enock Gota
#28 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Liam Dougherty | None-None |
| Enock Gota | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOUSTON
0%
RICE
100%
HOUSTON
--
RICE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-6 points
16.9%
HOU By 7-13 points
18.3%
RICE By 1-6 points
14.4%
RICE By 7-13 points
11.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
20.33
HOUSTON
Rice
15.79
RICE
Simulated Score
Houston
20
HOUSTON
Rice
31
RICE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Houston
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rice
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Houston (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.5
C
Sim
Rice (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 36.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2025
HOU @ RICE
35 - 9
Sep 14, 2024
RICE @ HOU
7 - 33
Sep 9, 2023
HOU @ RICE
41 - 43
Sep 24, 2022
RICE @ HOU
27 - 34
Sep 11, 2021
HOU @ RICE
44 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+37.3% more
Houston: 2.1
vs
Rice: 1.3
First Downs (L5)
+24.4% more
Rice: 20.0
vs
Houston: 16.1
Total Yards (L5)
+20.8% more
Rice: 354.1
vs
Houston: 293.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
20.3
35
RICE Score
15.8
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
20.0 / 16.1
16.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards
143.7 / 142.1
177.0 / 204.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.3
0.27 / 0.56
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.5
0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards
354.1 / 293.1
228.0 / 392.0
Turnovers
1.3 / 2.1
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 21.2
ATS +/-: +2.7
RICE
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: -9.4
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 21.2
ATS +/-: +2.7
RICE
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -9.4
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +6.5
RICE
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
HOU
RICE
HOU
ML
100%
5-0
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
ATS
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
60%
3-2
TTL
80%
4-1
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
80%
4-1
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