Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Western KY @ Toledo WKU @ TOL

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

2-0  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Glass Bowl
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

0-1  |  Home

45
Key Game
Braxton Myers
KEY GAME

Braxton Myers

#14 | Defensive Back
@
Emilio Duran
KEY GAME

Emilio Duran

#36 | Punter
Player
Braxton Myers None-None
Emilio Duran None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WESTERN KY
0%
📊
TOLEDO
100%
WESTERN KY --
TOLEDO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Western Kentucky)
Western KYWKU (-3.5) 0 ToledoTOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Western KY Cover

50.1%

Toledo Cover

49.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WKU -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

WKU By 1-6 points

16.5%

WKU By 7-13 points

15.4%

TOL By 1-6 points

16.4%

TOL By 7-13 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
23.64
WESTERN KENTUCKY
23.59
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
24
WESTERN KENTUCKY
28
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Western KY Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Toledo Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Western KY (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.1
C
Sim Toledo (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 WKU @ TOL 21 - 45
Sep 21, 2024 TOL @ WKU 21 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +18.5% more
Western Kentucky: 445.3 vs Toledo: 363.1
First Downs (L5) +15.5% more
Western Kentucky: 22.1 vs Toledo: 18.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Western Kentucky: 110.8 vs Toledo: 94.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Western Kentucky: 0.4 vs Toledo: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 23.6 21
TOL Score 23.6 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 22.1 21.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 94.4 / 110.8 307.0 / 59.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 363.1 / 445.3 508.0 / 333.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
TOL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
TOL Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
TOL
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +17.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
WKU
TOL
WKU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3-1
20% 1-4
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
TTL
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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