Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona St @ Mississippi St ASU @ MSST

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

1-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:30 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

1-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Kanyon Floyd
KEY GAME

Kanyon Floyd

#31 | Punter
@
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
Player
Kanyon Floyd None-None
Ethan Pulliam None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA ST
0%
📊
MISSISSIPPI ST
100%
ARIZONA ST --
MISSISSIPPI ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
70.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.7
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.7 points (Arizona State)
Arizona StASU (-3.5) 0 Mississippi StMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona St Cover

75.6%

Mississippi St Cover

24.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ASU -9.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

ASU By 1-6 points

15.4%

ASU By 7-13 points

19.7%

MSST By 1-6 points

10.9%

MSST By 7-13 points

7.5%

AI Model Projected Score
40.25
ARIZONA STATE
30.52
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
24
ARIZONA STATE
31
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Arizona St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Mississippi St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Arizona St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.7
C
Sim Mississippi St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 70.8
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 ASU @ MSST 20 - 24
Sep 7, 2024 MSST @ ASU 23 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.2% more
Arizona State: 209.5 vs Mississippi State: 144.1
Total Yards (L5) +18.2% more
Arizona State: 475.1 vs Mississippi State: 388.7
First Downs (L5) +11.6% more
Arizona State: 22.6 vs Mississippi State: 20.0
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Arizona State: 0.5 vs Mississippi State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 40.3 20
MSST Score 30.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 22.6 17.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 144.1 / 209.5 66.0 / 251.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 388.7 / 475.1 345.0 / 333.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -8.0
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +13.8
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
ASU
MSST
ASU
ML
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
0% 0-4
TTL
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-5
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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