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SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

S ILLINOISSIU

1-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:30 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

PURDUEPUR

1-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
David Obadein
KEY GAME

David Obadein

#34 | Linebacker
@
Ian Jeffries
KEY GAME

Ian Jeffries

#40 | Defensive Lineman
Player
David Obadein None-None
Ian Jeffries None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
S ILLINOIS
0%
📊
PURDUE
100%
S ILLINOIS --
PURDUE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.7
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.7 points (Southern Illinois)
S IllinoisSIU (-3.5) 0 PurduePUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

S Illinois Cover

77.8%

Purdue Cover

22.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SIU -10.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIU)

SIU By 1-6 points

14.9%

SIU By 7-13 points

19.7%

PUR By 1-6 points

10.2%

PUR By 7-13 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
22.05
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
11.35
PURDUE
Simulated Score
13
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
41
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI S Illinois Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Purdue Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI S Illinois (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.7
C
Sim Purdue (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 33.4
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 SIU @ PUR 17 - 34
Sep 20, 2014 SIU @ PUR 13 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.2% more
Southern Illinois: 120.7 vs Purdue: 66.1
Turnovers (L5) +49.5% more
Purdue: 1.7 vs Southern Illinois: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SIU Score 22.1 17
PUR Score 11.4 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.3 / 16.3 29.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 66.1 / 120.7 214.0 / 81.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.64 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.4 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 297.6 / 307.8 384.0 / 283.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIU
--
PUR Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIU
--
PUR Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SIU
--
PUR
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
SIU
PUR
SIU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
ATS
25% 1-3-1
100% 1-0
50% 2-2-1
0% 0-1
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
40% 2-3
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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