Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Vanderbilt @ Virginia Tech VAN @ VT

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

1-0  |  Road

44
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:30 PM ET
Lane Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA TECH

VIRGINIA TECHVT

0-1  |  Home

20
Key Game
Carson Lawrence
KEY GAME

Carson Lawrence

#3 | Safety
@
John Love
KEY GAME

John Love

#17 | Place kicker
Player
Carson Lawrence None-None
John Love None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VANDERBILT
0%
📊
VIRGINIA TECH
100%
VANDERBILT --
VIRGINIA TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Vanderbilt)
VanderbiltVAN (-3.5) 0 Virginia TechVT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vanderbilt Cover

59.8%

Virginia Tech Cover

40.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around VAN -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

VAN By 1-6 points

17.0%

VAN By 7-13 points

17.7%

VT By 1-6 points

15.0%

VT By 7-13 points

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24.52
VANDERBILT
21.05
VIRGINIA TECH
Simulated Score
27
VANDERBILT
17
VIRGINIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vanderbilt Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Vanderbilt Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vanderbilt (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.5
C
Sim Vanderbilt (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.6
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 VAN @ VT 44 - 20
Aug 31, 2024 VT @ VAN 27 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Vanderbilt: 0.5 vs Virginia Tech: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +12.1% more
Vanderbilt: 19.6 vs Virginia Tech: 17.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.6% more
Vanderbilt: 150.3 vs Virginia Tech: 134.4
Turnovers (L5) +115.0% more
Virginia Tech: 1.5 vs Vanderbilt: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 24.5 44
VT Score 21.1 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 19.6 16.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 134.4 / 150.3 114.0 / 262.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.71
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 335.6 / 347.4 248.0 / 490.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.3 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
VT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
VT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 21.4 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.1
VT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VT
VAN
VT
VAN
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
TTL
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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