Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UCLA @ UNLV UCLA @ UNLV

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

0-1  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

2-0  |  Home

30
Key Game
Mateen Bhaghani
KEY GAME

Mateen Bhaghani

#15 | Place kicker
@
Logan Christensen
KEY GAME

Logan Christensen

#14 | Safety
Player
Mateen Bhaghani None-None
Logan Christensen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCLA
100%
📊
UNLV
0%
UCLA --
UNLV --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (UNLV)
UCLAUCLA (-3.5) 0 UNLVUNLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCLA Cover

19.6%

UNLV Cover

80.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNLV -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

UCLA By 1-6 points

9.3%

UCLA By 7-13 points

5.9%

UNLV By 1-6 points

14.2%

UNLV By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
17.25
UCLA
29.23
UNLV
Simulated Score
17
UCLA
38
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UNLV Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UNLV Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UNLV (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
C
Sim UNLV (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.5
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 UCLA @ UNLV 23 - 30
Sep 10, 2016 UNLV @ UCLA 21 - 42
Sep 12, 2015 UCLA @ UNLV 37 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +130.8% more
UNLV: 214.0 vs UCLA: 92.7
Total Yards (L5) +32.3% more
UNLV: 416.9 vs UCLA: 315.1
First Downs (L5) +15.3% more
UNLV: 20.1 vs UCLA: 17.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCLA Score 17.3 23
UNLV Score 29.2 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 17.5 20.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 214.0 / 92.7 148.0 / 173.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 416.9 / 315.1 351.0 / 428.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
UNLV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCLA Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 26.0 ATS +/-: +18.0
UNLV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UCLA
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.3
UNLV
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
UCLA
UNLV
UCLA
ML
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
ATS
20% 1-4
33% 1-2-1
60% 3-2
0% 0-3-1
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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