Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tulsa @ New Mexico St TLSA @ NMSU

TULSA

TULSATLSA

1-0  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 9:00 PM ET
Aggie Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

1-0  |  Home

21
Key Game
Hudson Ball
KEY GAME

Hudson Ball

#32 | Defensive Lineman
@
Brad Vislisel
KEY GAME

Brad Vislisel

#8 | Defensive End
Player
Hudson Ball None-None
Brad Vislisel None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULSA
50%
📊
NEW MEXICO ST
50%
TULSA --
NEW MEXICO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.8
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.8 points (New Mexico State)
TulsaTLSA (-3.5) 0 New Mexico StNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulsa Cover

24.2%

New Mexico St Cover

75.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NMSU -9.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

TLSA By 1-6 points

10.9%

TLSA By 7-13 points

7.4%

NMSU By 1-6 points

15.3%

NMSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
14.98
TULSA
24.8
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
17
TULSA
31
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI New Mexico St Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim New Mexico St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI New Mexico St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.8
D
Sim New Mexico St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 TLSA @ NMSU 14 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.6% more
Tulsa: 1.9 vs New Mexico State: 1.6
Total Yards (L5) +13.6% more
Tulsa: 429.1 vs New Mexico State: 370.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.3% more
Tulsa: 172.7 vs New Mexico State: 151.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score 15.0 14
NMSU Score 24.8 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 21.4 19.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 151.4 / 172.7 39.0 / 141.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 370.6 / 429.1 291.0 / 375.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.9 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
NMSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
NMSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.7
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
TLSA
NMSU
TLSA
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
83% 5-1
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
20% 1-4
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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