Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UT Martin @ UTEP UTM @ UTEP

UT MARTIN

UT MARTINUTM

0-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 9:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl
View Odds Details →

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

0-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Deuce Oliver
KEY GAME

Deuce Oliver

#1 | Wide Receiver
@
Carlos Arreola
KEY GAME

Carlos Arreola

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Deuce Oliver None-None
Carlos Arreola None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UT MARTIN
100%
📊
UTEP
0%
UT MARTIN --
UTEP --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
24.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.9
UTEP
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.9 points (UTEP)
UT MartinUTM (-3.5) 0 UTEPUTEP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UT Martin Cover

24.0%

UTEP Cover

76.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTEP -9.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)

UTM By 1-6 points

10.8%

UTM By 7-13 points

7.3%

UTEP By 1-6 points

15.3%

UTEP By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
7.49
UT MARTIN
17.39
UTEP
Simulated Score
13
UT MARTIN
42
UTEP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UTEP Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UTEP Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UTEP (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.9
C
Sim UTEP (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 24.9
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 UTM @ UTEP 17 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.7% more
UTEP: 1.3 vs UT Martin: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +23.3% more
UTEP: 300.6 vs UT Martin: 243.9
First Downs (L5) +21.8% more
UTEP: 17.2 vs UT Martin: 14.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.3% more
UTEP: 115.6 vs UT Martin: 106.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTM Score 7.5 17
UTEP Score 17.4 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 14.1 14.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 115.6 / 106.8 194.0 / 76.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 300.6 / 243.9 472.0 / 371.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
7%MONEY93%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM
--
UTEP Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM
--
UTEP Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
--
UTEP
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTEP
UTM
UTEP
UTM
ML
100% 5-0
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-5
33% 1-2
0% 0-5
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 5-0
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Michigan Overcomes Early Turnovers to Rout UTEP 52-17 Behind Und…
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