Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Weber St @ Arizona WEB @ ARIZ

WEBER STATE

WEBER STWEB

0-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 10:00 PM ET
Arizona Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

1-0  |  Home

48
Key Game
Noah Kjar
KEY GAME

Noah Kjar

#8 | Wide Receiver
@
Michael Salgado-Medina
KEY GAME

Michael Salgado-Medina

#19 | Place kicker
Player
Noah Kjar None-None
Michael Salgado-Medina None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WEBER ST
100%
📊
ARIZONA
0%
WEBER ST --
ARIZONA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
26.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.9
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.9 points (Arizona)
Weber StWEB (-3.5) 0 ArizonaARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Weber St Cover

17.8%

Arizona Cover

82.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARIZ -12.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

WEB By 1-6 points

8.6%

WEB By 7-13 points

5.3%

ARIZ By 1-6 points

13.6%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6.76
WEBER STATE
19.68
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
10
WEBER STATE
45
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arizona Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arizona Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arizona (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.9
C
Sim Arizona (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 26.4
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 WEB @ ARIZ 3 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +49.2% more
Arizona: 307.5 vs Weber State: 206.1
First Downs (L5) +37.2% more
Arizona: 16.5 vs Weber State: 12.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Arizona: 0.4 vs Weber State: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.8% more
Arizona: 110.6 vs Weber State: 97.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WEB Score 6.8 3
ARIZ Score 19.7 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.5 / 12.0 31.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 110.6 / 97.2 150.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 307.5 / 206.1 556.0 / 184.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.9 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WEB
--
ARIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WEB
--
ARIZ Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WEB
--
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
WEB
ARIZ
WEB
ML
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
20% 1-4
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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