Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / San Diego St @ Washington St SDSU @ WSU

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

1-0  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 10:15 PM ET
Martin Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

1-0  |  Home

36
Key Game
Krishna Clay
KEY GAME

Krishna Clay

#11 | Defensive Lineman
@
Jack Stevens
KEY GAME

Jack Stevens

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Krishna Clay None-None
Jack Stevens None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN DIEGO ST
100%
📊
WASHINGTON ST
0%
SAN DIEGO ST --
WASHINGTON ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.9
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Washington State)
San Diego StSDSU (-3.5) 0 Washington StWSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San Diego St Cover

38.9%

Washington St Cover

61.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WSU -3.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSU)

SDSU By 1-6 points

14.8%

SDSU By 7-13 points

12.1%

WSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

WSU By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20.7
SAN DIEGO STATE
24.65
WASHINGTON STATE
Simulated Score
24
SAN DIEGO STATE
27
WASHINGTON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Washington St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Washington St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Washington St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.9
C
Sim Washington St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.3
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 SDSU @ WSU 13 - 36
Oct 26, 2024 WSU @ SDSU 29 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +101.0% more
Washington State: 1.4 vs San Diego State: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.8% more
San Diego State: 165.7 vs Washington State: 89.8
First Downs (L5) +14.1% more
San Diego State: 22.0 vs Washington State: 18.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
San Diego State: 0.4 vs Washington State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 20.7 13
WSU Score 24.7 36
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 22.0 19.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 89.8 / 165.7 139.0 / 82.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.28 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 348.2 / 386.8 396.0 / 215.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
WSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -7.2
WSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.7
WSU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
SDSU
WSU
SDSU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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