Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UC Davis @ Washington UCD @ WASH

UC DAVIS

UC DAVISUCD

1-0  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 11:00 PM ET
Husky Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

1-0  |  Home

70
Key Game
Jaden Few
KEY GAME

Jaden Few

#7 | Defensive Lineman
@
Grady Gross
KEY GAME

Grady Gross

#20 | Place kicker
Player
Jaden Few None-None
Grady Gross None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UC DAVIS
100%
📊
WASHINGTON
0%
UC DAVIS --
WASHINGTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.2
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.2 points (Washington)
UC DavisUCD (-3.5) 0 WashingtonWASH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UC Davis Cover

32.8%

Washington Cover

67.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WASH -6.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)

UCD By 1-6 points

13.4%

UCD By 7-13 points

10.2%

WASH By 1-6 points

16.7%

WASH By 7-13 points

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
16.38
UC DAVIS
22.62
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
10
UC DAVIS
52
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Washington Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Washington Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Washington (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.2
C
Sim Washington (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 UCD @ WASH 10 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +83.1% more
Washington: 156.1 vs UC Davis: 85.3
Total Yards (L5) +34.0% more
Washington: 404.6 vs UC Davis: 301.9
First Downs (L5) +18.3% more
Washington: 21.5 vs UC Davis: 18.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Washington: 0.4 vs UC Davis: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCD Score 16.4 10
WASH Score 22.6 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 18.2 34.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 156.1 / 85.3 324.0 / 76.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.85 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 404.6 / 301.9 628.0 / 218.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 2.0 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD
--
WASH Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD
--
WASH Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
--
WASH
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WASH
UCD
WASH
UCD
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
TTL
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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