Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Sam Houston @ Hawai'i SHSU @ HAW

SAM HOUSTON

SAM HOUSTONSHSU

0-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 11:59 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

1-1  |  Home

37
Key Game
Tim Burns Jr.
KEY GAME

Tim Burns Jr.

#3 | Wide Receiver
@
Ka'eo Akana
KEY GAME

Ka'eo Akana

#10 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Tim Burns Jr. None-None
Ka'eo Akana None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAM HOUSTON
0%
📊
HAWAI'I
100%
SAM HOUSTON --
HAWAI'I --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Sam Houston)
Sam HoustonSHSU (-3.5) 0 Hawai'iHAW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sam Houston Cover

62.3%

Hawai'i Cover

37.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SHSU -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

SHSU By 1-6 points

16.9%

SHSU By 7-13 points

18.2%

HAW By 1-6 points

14.5%

HAW By 7-13 points

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
23.01
SAM HOUSTON
18.63
HAWAI'I
Simulated Score
24
SAM HOUSTON
27
HAWAI'I
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Sam Houston Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Hawai'i Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Sam Houston (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.4
C
Sim Hawai'i (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.6
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 SHSU @ HAW 20 - 37
Sep 14, 2024 HAW @ SHSU 13 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.8% more
Sam Houston: 142.5 vs Hawai'i: 85.8
Turnovers (L5) +169.0% more
Hawai'i: 2.7 vs Sam Houston: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +22.4% more
Hawai'i: 21.1 vs Sam Houston: 17.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Hawai'i: 0.3 vs Sam Houston: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 23.0 20
HAW Score 18.6 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 17.2 24.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 85.8 / 142.5 123.0 / 79.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.35 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 352.8 / 330.0 417.0 / 238.0
Turnovers 2.7 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
HAW
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
SHSU
HAW
SHSU
ML
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
ATS
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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