Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Pirates LAD @ PIT

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

78-59  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, Sep 2 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

61-77  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Edgardo Henriquez
STARTING PITCHER

Edgardo Henriquez

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bubba Chandler
STARTING PITCHER

Bubba Chandler

#36 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Edgardo Henriquez None-None 2.19 -- 0.1 --
Bubba Chandler None-None 2.25 -- 4.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
2.19 Ldr ERA 2.25
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
63%
📊
PIRATES
37%
DODGERS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

61.6%

Pirates Cover

38.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.7%

PIT By 1-2 runs

15.8%

PIT By 3-4 runs

10.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.37
LOS ANGELES
4.19
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 PIT @ LAD 0 - 4
Aug 22, 2026 PIT @ LAD 3 - 4
Aug 21, 2026 PIT @ LAD 4 - 5
Jun 11, 2026 LAD @ PIT 8 - 6
Jun 10, 2026 LAD @ PIT 8 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.330
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.762 ▲
OPS
.734
204 ▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +19.6% more
Los Angeles: 11.0 vs Pittsburgh: 8.9
Home Runs (Season) +8.8% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Pittsburgh: 186.0
Runs per Game (Season) +4.3% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Pittsburgh: 4.7
OPS (Season) +2.8%
Los Angeles: 76.2% vs Pittsburgh: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.4 7
PIT Score 4.2 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 7.5 8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 11.0 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 11.3 11.0 / 20.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.3 2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
LAD
PIT
LAD
ML
52% 82-77
56% 92-73
52% 85-78
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 98-67
50% 81-82
43% 72-94
TTL
47% 72-81-6
48% 77-82-6
50% 79-78-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 1 hour, 22 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 33 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 1 hour, 40 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour, 40 minutes ago
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
players_bio 7 hours, 18 minutes ago