MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
65-73 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
54-83 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Heriberto Hernandez
#13 | Left Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heriberto Hernandez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Cade Cavalli | None-None | 4.85 | -- | 5.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.85
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
58%
NATIONALS
42%
MARLINS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.9%
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.78
MIAMI
Washington
3.53
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
B
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.727
OPS
▲
.744
168
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+34.8% more
Miami: 11.9
vs
Washington: 7.8
Home Runs (L5)
+32.0% more
Miami: 0.5
vs
Washington: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+26.6% more
Miami: 7.9
vs
Washington: 5.8
Walks (L5)
+11.1% more
Miami: 3.2
vs
Washington: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.8
2
WSH Score
3.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.4
1.0 / 3.0
Hits
5.8 / 7.9
10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 7.7
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
7.8 / 11.9
17.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.2
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIA
WSH
MIA
ML
57%
92-69
48%
78-84
54%
87-74
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
91-71
57%
91-70
54%
86-74
TTL
50%
77-78-6
56%
88-69-5
42%
65-90-6
53%
82-73-5
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