SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
73-65 | Road
5
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
68-69 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gabe Speier
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Cleavinger
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Speier | None-None | 2.39 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | None-None | 1.75 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.39
ERA
Ldr 1.75
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
53%
RAYS
47%
MARINERS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
SEA By 1-2 runs
17.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
12.2%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TB By 3-4 runs
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.2
SEATTLE
Tampa Bay
4.68
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
TB @ SEA
4 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
TB @ SEA
3 - 2
Aug 7, 2026
TB @ SEA
2 - 1
Jul 12, 2026
SEA @ TB
8 - 2
Jul 11, 2026
SEA @ TB
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.693
OPS
▲
.728
182
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+66.7% more
Tampa Bay: 2.8
vs
Seattle: 1.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+40.6% more
Tampa Bay: 11.6
vs
Seattle: 8.2
Home Runs (L5)
+31.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.7
vs
Seattle: 1.3
Total Bases (L5)
+19.4% more
Tampa Bay: 16.4
vs
Seattle: 13.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.2
5
TB Score
4.7
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 8.6
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.3
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
11.6 / 8.2
5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
16.4 / 13.7
12.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.8 / 1.7
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SEA
TB
SEA
ML
58%
95-68
50%
81-81
58%
95-68
52%
85-77
ATS
60%
97-66
60%
98-64
55%
90-73
59%
95-67
TTL
47%
73-81-9
56%
85-67-10
51%
78-75-10
53%
81-71-10
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