Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Twins CHW @ MIN

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

50-88  |  Road

12
FINAL
Tue, Sep 2 • 7:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

62-75  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Hudson
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Hudson

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Austin Martin
STARTING PITCHER

Austin Martin

#16 | Right Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Hudson None-None 4.80 -- 1.0 2
Austin Martin None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.80 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
41%
📊
TWINS
59%
WHITE SOX --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 29%
Under 0 71%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Minnesota)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

37.2%

Twins Cover

62.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

CHW By 1-2 runs

15.5%

CHW By 3-4 runs

9.7%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

17.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.46
CHICAGO
4.77
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
C
Sim Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 MIN @ CHW 1 - 10
Sep 5, 2026 MIN @ CHW 6 - 4
Sep 4, 2026 MIN @ CHW 1 - 4
Aug 30, 2026 CHW @ MIN 1 - 5
Aug 29, 2026 CHW @ MIN 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Minnesota MIN
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.826 ▲
OPS
.720
1
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +18600.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Walks (L5) +35.2% more
Chicago: 5.3 vs Minnesota: 3.4
Errors (L5) +27.7% more
Chicago: 1.4 vs Minnesota: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +27.6% more
Chicago: 9.8 vs Minnesota: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.5 12
MIN Score 4.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 9.0 7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.3 0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 9.8 15.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 15.5 10.0 / 26.0
Walks 3.4 / 5.3 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
CHW
MIN
CHW
ML
52% 84-78
49% 81-86
50% 80-81
56% 94-73
ATS
59% 95-67
59% 99-68
59% 95-66
56% 93-74
TTL
51% 78-75-9
58% 96-69-2
53% 80-72-9
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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