TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
72-67 | Road
3
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
68-71 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Latz
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Locklear
#31 | First Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Latz | None-None | 3.15 | -- | 5.1 | 1 |
| Tyler Locklear | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.15
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
5.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
53%
DIAMONDBACKS
47%
RANGERS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
TEX By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TEX By 3-4 runs
10.7%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.93
TEXAS
Arizona
5.92
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
TEX @ ARI
7 - 6
Sep 12, 2026
TEX @ ARI
6 - 2
Sep 11, 2026
TEX @ ARI
1 - 9
May 13, 2026
ARI @ TEX
5 - 6
May 12, 2026
ARI @ TEX
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.713
OPS
▲
.720
183
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+83.6% more
Arizona: 3.1
vs
Texas: 1.7
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Arizona: 0.1
vs
Texas: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.9% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Texas: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+0.7%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Texas: 71.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.9
3
ARI Score
5.9
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 10.6
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 2.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 9.4
5.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 19.5
15.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.1 / 1.7
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
TEX
ARI
TEX
ML
54%
87-74
53%
86-76
54%
86-74
57%
91-70
ATS
57%
91-70
57%
92-70
56%
89-71
61%
98-63
TTL
52%
80-73-8
53%
78-70-14
49%
73-77-9
55%
81-66-14
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