Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Nationals MIA @ WSH

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

65-72  |  Road

0
FINAL
Mon, Sep 1 • 1:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

53-83  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Michael Petersen
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Petersen

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Petersen None-None 3.38 -- 1.1 1
Clayton Beeter None-None 5.51 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.38 Ldr ERA 5.51
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
59%
📊
NATIONALS
41%
MARLINS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

64.0%

Nationals Cover

36.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIA By 3-4 runs

17.3%

WSH By 1-2 runs

15.2%

WSH By 3-4 runs

9.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.93
MIAMI
3.5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
MIAMI
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marlins Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 MIA @ WSH 3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 MIA @ WSH 6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026 MIA @ WSH 4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026 MIA @ WSH 2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026 WSH @ MIA 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.727
OPS
▲ .744
168
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +47.0% more
Miami: 0.7 vs Washington: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +44.1% more
Miami: 16.4 vs Washington: 9.2
Walks (L5) +36.2% more
Miami: 4.2 vs Washington: 2.7
Hits (L5) +33.8% more
Miami: 10.8 vs Washington: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 4.9 0
WSH Score 3.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 10.8 3.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 8.1 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 9.2 / 16.4 5.0 / 3.0
Walks 2.7 / 4.2 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIA
WSH
MIA
ML
57% 92-69
48% 78-84
54% 87-74
55% 88-72
ATS
58% 93-68
56% 91-71
57% 91-70
54% 86-74
TTL
50% 77-78-6
56% 88-69-5
42% 65-90-6
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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