Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Astros LAA @ HOU

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

64-72  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Sep 1 • 2:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

75-62  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Travis d'Arnaud
STARTING PITCHER

Travis d'Arnaud

#25 | Catcher
@
Bryan King
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan King

#74 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Travis d'Arnaud None-None -- -- -- --
Bryan King None-None 2.83 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.83
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
42%
📊
ASTROS
58%
ANGELS --
ASTROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Los Angeles)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 AstrosHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

62.9%

Astros Cover

37.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

17.1%

HOU By 1-2 runs

15.5%

HOU By 3-4 runs

9.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.73
LOS ANGELES
2.41
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
C
Sim Astros (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.1
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 LAA @ HOU 18 - 3
Aug 19, 2026 LAA @ HOU 2 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 LAA @ HOU 3 - 1
Jul 29, 2026 HOU @ LAA 7 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 HOU @ LAA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.04 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.369 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.679 ▲
OPS
.582
154 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +97.4% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +38.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.0 vs Houston: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season) +25.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.0 vs Houston: 3.0
Total Bases (L5) +10.7% more
Los Angeles: 9.9 vs Houston: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.7 3
HOU Score 2.4 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.9 / 5.6 12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.0 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.8 / 7.0 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 8.8 / 9.9 22.0 / 13.0
Walks 5.0 / 3.4 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LAA
HOU
LAA
ML
50% 81-82
59% 96-66
47% 77-87
55% 89-73
ATS
56% 91-72
60% 97-65
55% 90-74
51% 82-80
TTL
45% 70-84-9
53% 83-74-5
45% 69-86-9
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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