ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
62-75 | Road
6
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
78-59 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Civale
#38 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 3.41 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Aaron Civale | None-None | 5.09 | -- | 3.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.41 Ldr
ERA
5.09
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
38%
CUBS
62%
BRAVES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.5%
ATL By 3-4 runs
18.6%
CHC By 1-2 runs
13.2%
CHC By 3-4 runs
7.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
5.61
ATLANTA
Chicago
3.5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.1
A
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
ATL @ CHC
4 - 8
Sep 15, 2026
ATL @ CHC
6 - 3
Sep 14, 2026
ATL @ CHC
3 - 7
May 14, 2026
CHC @ ATL
2 - 0
May 13, 2026
CHC @ ATL
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Chicago
CHC
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.757
▲
OPS
.374
1
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+90.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+38.3%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+28.8%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Chicago: 14.5%
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.2% more
Atlanta: 9.5
vs
Chicago: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
5.6
6
CHC Score
3.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 8.1
11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.9
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 9.5
13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
15.7 / 12.1
20.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.2
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
ATL
CHC
ATL
ML
58%
93-68
46%
77-90
51%
82-79
54%
90-78
ATS
61%
97-63-1
57%
96-71
47%
75-85-1
52%
87-81
TTL
52%
81-74-6
53%
83-73-11
46%
72-83-6
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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