SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
73-64 | Road
2
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
67-69 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emerson Hancock
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Cleavinger
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson Hancock | None-None | 5.51 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | None-None | 1.79 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.51
ERA
Ldr 1.79
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
54%
RAYS
46%
MARINERS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
15.9%
TB By 1-2 runs
16.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
11.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.66
SEATTLE
Tampa Bay
3.81
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
TB @ SEA
4 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
TB @ SEA
3 - 2
Aug 7, 2026
TB @ SEA
2 - 1
Jul 12, 2026
SEA @ TB
8 - 2
Jul 11, 2026
SEA @ TB
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.693
OPS
▲
.728
182
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+14.3% more
Seattle: 7.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 6.8
Home Runs (Season)
+7.1% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Walks (L5)
+57.6% more
Tampa Bay: 3.2
vs
Seattle: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+48.3% more
Tampa Bay: 12.3
vs
Seattle: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.7
2
TB Score
3.8
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.8 / 7.9
13.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.4
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
12.3 / 8.3
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 13.0
23.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.0
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SEA
TB
SEA
ML
58%
95-68
50%
81-81
58%
95-68
52%
85-77
ATS
60%
97-66
60%
98-64
55%
90-73
59%
95-67
TTL
47%
73-81-9
56%
85-67-10
51%
78-75-10
53%
81-71-10
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