TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
71-67 | Road
7
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
68-70 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Burger
#21 | First Base@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 4.32 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.32
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
52%
DIAMONDBACKS
48%
RANGERS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
TEX By 1-2 runs
12.1%
TEX By 3-4 runs
6.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.2%
ARI By 3-4 runs
19.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.16
TEXAS
Arizona
6.65
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.5
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
TEX @ ARI
7 - 6
Sep 12, 2026
TEX @ ARI
6 - 2
Sep 11, 2026
TEX @ ARI
1 - 9
May 13, 2026
ARI @ TEX
5 - 6
May 12, 2026
ARI @ TEX
4 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.713
OPS
▲
.720
183
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+55.8% more
Arizona: 3.2
vs
Texas: 2.1
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
Arizona: 0.2
vs
Texas: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.9% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Texas: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+0.7%
Arizona: 72.0%
vs
Texas: 71.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.2
7
ARI Score
6.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 11.9
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 2.2
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 9.1
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 21.2
19.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.1
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
TEX
ARI
TEX
ML
54%
87-74
53%
86-76
54%
86-74
57%
91-70
ATS
57%
91-70
57%
92-70
56%
89-71
61%
98-63
TTL
52%
80-73-8
53%
78-70-14
49%
73-77-9
55%
81-66-14
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