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EAST TEXAS A&M

EAST TEXAS A&METAM

0-0  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 9:15 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
View Odds Details →

SMU

SMUSMU

0-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Ben Mehan
KEY GAME

Ben Mehan

#39 | Punter
@
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
Player
Ben Mehan None-None
Wade McSparron None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAST TEXAS A&M
100%
📊
SMU
0%
EAST TEXAS A&M --
SMU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.9
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.9 points (SMU)
East Texas A&METAM (-3.5) 0 SMUSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

East Texas A&M Cover

19.7%

SMU Cover

80.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SMU -11.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

ETAM By 1-6 points

9.3%

ETAM By 7-13 points

5.9%

SMU By 1-6 points

14.2%

SMU By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
14.78
EAST TEXAS A&M
26.72
SMU
Simulated Score
7
EAST TEXAS A&M
63
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI SMU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim SMU Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI SMU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.9
C
Sim SMU (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -56.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.5
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 70.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 ETAM @ SMU 13 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +67.8% more
SMU: 380.3 vs East Texas A&M: 226.7
First Downs (L5) +41.7% more
SMU: 22.7 vs East Texas A&M: 16.0
Turnovers (L5) +18.6% more
SMU: 2.0 vs East Texas A&M: 1.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.8% more
SMU: 115.3 vs East Texas A&M: 105.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ETAM Score 14.8 13
SMU Score 26.7 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.7 / 16.0 25.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 115.3 / 105.0 140.0 / 107.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 380.3 / 226.7 400.0 / 351.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.7 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETAM
--
SMU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETAM
--
SMU Advantage
1-3-1 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ETAM
--
SMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
ETAM
SMU
ETAM
ML
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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