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ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

68-69  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Aug 31 • 12:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

68-68  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Gordon Graceffo
STARTING PITCHER

Gordon Graceffo

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gordon Graceffo None-None 5.75 -- 1.2 3
Emilio Pagan None-None 2.88 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
5.75 ERA Ldr 2.88
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
50%
📊
REDS
50%
CARDINALS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (St. Louis)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

56.7%

Reds Cover

43.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

15.4%

CIN By 1-2 runs

17.1%

CIN By 3-4 runs

11.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.47
ST. LOUIS
3.8
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
C
Sim Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 STL @ CIN 10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026 STL @ CIN 4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026 STL @ CIN 3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026 STL @ CIN 2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026 CIN @ STL 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .394
.691
OPS
▲ .699
167
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +8.3% more
St. Louis: 1.4 vs Cincinnati: 1.3
Runs per Game (Season) +7.4% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Batting Avg (Season) +1.0%
St. Louis: 23.9% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.8%
St. Louis: 31.3% vs Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.5 4
CIN Score 3.8 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.3 / 7.1 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 6.8 15.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 13.1 18.0 / 12.0
Walks 4.1 / 4.0 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
STL
CIN
STL
ML
55% 88-71
53% 85-74
49% 79-81
52% 84-77
ATS
54% 86-73
56% 89-70
50% 80-80
53% 85-76
TTL
53% 81-73-5
46% 68-81-10
54% 83-72-5
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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