Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Twins SD @ MIN

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

76-60  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Aug 31 • 1:05 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

61-74  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
@
Joe Ryan
STARTING PITCHER

Joe Ryan

#41 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Miller None-None 3.28 -- 1.0 1
Joe Ryan None-None 3.08 -- 7.0 8
None-None W-L None-None
3.28 ERA Ldr 3.08
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
61%
📊
TWINS
39%
PADRES --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 80%
Under 0 20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

54.9%

Twins Cover

45.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.1%

SD By 3-4 runs

15.0%

MIN By 1-2 runs

17.5%

MIN By 3-4 runs

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.72
SAN DIEGO
4.23
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 MIN @ SD 1 - 8
Aug 22, 2026 MIN @ SD 5 - 7
Aug 21, 2026 MIN @ SD 2 - 6
Aug 31, 2025 SD @ MIN 2 - 7
Aug 30, 2025 SD @ MIN 12 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Minnesota MIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.925 ▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +24.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Minnesota: 4.6
Hits (L5) +21.3% more
San Diego: 10.5 vs Minnesota: 8.3
OPS (Season) +20.5%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Minnesota: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season) +16.0%
San Diego: 56.3% vs Minnesota: 40.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.7 2
MIN Score 4.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 10.5 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 6.6 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 14.4 / 16.4 12.0 / 11.0
Walks 4.4 / 3.3 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
SD
MIN
SD
ML
52% 84-78
51% 85-83
50% 80-81
51% 85-82
ATS
59% 95-67
54% 91-77
59% 95-66
55% 92-75
TTL
51% 78-75-9
51% 82-80-6
53% 80-72-9
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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