PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
61-76 | Road
2
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
75-62 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yohan Ramirez
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yohan Ramirez | None-None | 6.04 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.02 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.04
ERA
Ldr 1.02
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
40%
RED SOX
60%
PIRATES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.8%
PIT By 3-4 runs
14.3%
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.0%
BOS By 3-4 runs
12.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.19
PITTSBURGH
Boston
3.95
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
A
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
BOS @ PIT
3 - 8
Aug 15, 2026
BOS @ PIT
4 - 0
Aug 14, 2026
BOS @ PIT
4 - 8
Aug 31, 2025
PIT @ BOS
2 - 5
Aug 30, 2025
PIT @ BOS
10 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.734
▲
OPS
.409
186
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.9% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+78.9% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+32.5%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+17.1%
Pittsburgh: 33.0%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.2
2
BOS Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.2
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 8.8
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 13.8
13.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.5
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
PIT
BOS
PIT
ML
50%
80-80
52%
82-77
47%
76-87
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
93-67
54%
86-73
48%
79-84
50%
81-82
TTL
46%
72-83-5
47%
72-81-6
47%
74-83-6
50%
79-78-6
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